Five Below opens a new store every Friday. Target is investing between two and four billion dollars in capital this year alone. Canadian Tire is rebuilding 40-year-old assets while holding the line on new builds. Three very different retailers, three very different growth strategies, and on a panel at RetailSpaces Spring 2026 in San Antonio, their leaders sat down to find the common threads.
The conversation, moderated by Zia Durrani (Producer, RetailSpaces), brought together Amber Koehler, VP of Construction at Target; Paul Calderon, VP of Store Growth at Five Below; and Taha Hasan, AVP of Design & Construction at Canadian Tire. Over the course of an hour, they covered everything from permitting gridlock to AI on the job site to what they think the industry is dangerously underestimating.
Ask three store development leaders what is driving their decisions in 2026 and you get one answer: value.
"The customer is still looking for value," Calderon said, "and the retailers that are growing are those that can deliver it." Koehler agreed, and added a second word: ease. "It is foundational, it is table stakes. Retail has always been competitive and it is not going to stop being competitive. But I think what has become hard is differentiation, and the discipline to stay focused is what is going to be critical in the year ahead."
Calderon pushed the concept of ease further, arguing that for younger consumers, convenience is less about physical accessibility and more about time. "My kids are very willing to open up their wallet to have people do things for them," he said. "That has to do with whether that is online shopping, buy online, pick up in store. Convenience has changed."
If there is one thing that separates 2026 from 2019, the panelists said, it is unpredictability, and the industry's shifting relationship with it.
"Volatility is no longer the exception," Hasan said. "It is the rule. We are starting to embed that as a design consideration." Canadian Tire is responding by building optionality earlier in the development process, using breakout pricing so that project teams can make fast decisions when scope or cost conditions shift without going back to square one.
Koehler framed the same challenge through a different lens. "In 2019, I could look at our pipeline and anticipate where we were going to need extended timelines," she said. "Today, markets flare at different times. I find myself genuinely surprised in places I did not expect to be surprised."
For Calderon, the biggest change is the speed at which his team is expected to solve problems. "The expectations are much higher. The need to go even faster than you used to, that is probably the biggest shift."
When Zia asked the panelists whether they are focused on new store growth or optimizing existing assets, he got the same answer from all three: yes.
"Our CEO has said that this next year our stores will see more change than they have seen in a decade," Koehler said of Target, which is simultaneously pursuing new builds toward a 300-store goal and investing in full remodels of existing locations. McKinsey data she cited made the urgency plain: roughly 20 percent of large projects run behind schedule, and up to 80 percent go over budget. "There are headwinds in our industry," she said. "But we know that having a physical location close to our consumers is where the magic happens."
At Canadian Tire, Hasan described a category of new builds that are actually replacements, moving a 40-year-old store across the street to upgrade the asset while minimizing operational downtime. "It feels like a brand new store for the customer," he said, "but really we are decreasing downtime and adding a fresh look without the full cost of net-new construction."
Calderon offered a pointed caution for brands that are tempted to deprioritize fleet investment: "There is a laundry list of retailers that have not done it. Once you fall too far behind, you are not getting back up. It is just a question of when you may go away."
The same two issues keep coming up: permitting and utilities. The virtual submittal processes that were supposed to speed things up are actually slowing timelines down. And utility companies are still leaving finished stores sitting in the dark. As Calderon put it, “Your store is complete and ready to open, but you can’t get power.”
Koehler made a point that hit home. Development teams are already moving faster than people realize. “We’re not getting our pads on time, we’re not starting projects on time, and schedules are already compressed. But no one talks about the late start. They only notice when you miss the finish line.”
Hasan’s approach is to bring partners in earlier. “Partnerships aren’t just about winning the job,” he said. “It’s about working together across the full portfolio. How do we move faster together? Because once bids come back and the numbers don’t work, you don’t have six weeks to go back and redesign.”
Zia joked he was “legally required” to discuss AI. The panelists went straight to what is actually working.
Koehler described cameras on job sites that review conditions in real time, flag conflicts with drawings, issue RFIs, and propose resolutions within minutes. “Instead of waiting 24 hours, you have instant recommendations. This technology exists today.” She also noted the industry may be three to five years from having robots routinely deployed on job sites.
Calderon is piloting voice-activated budgeting: construction managers narrating scope on a job walk, with AI building a live project budget in real time. Canadian Tire spent 18 months embedding cost estimation into every element of a BIM model hosted on its own cloud, so design changes produce instant cost updates. Both teams are keeping their models in-house over data ownership concerns. “If data was important before,” Hasan said, “in the world of AI it is going to matter even more.”
Calderon’s framing was the most useful: “If you did not like the web before it became prevalent, well, now it is just part of everyday life. That is basically what AI is. The question is whether you are willing to embrace it.”
To close the session, Zia asked each panelist what the industry is underestimating. The answers were worth writing down.
Hasan: Flexibility. "The customer experience is changing faster than it used to. You used to have five years of a customer type, and now we do not know how quickly it will shift. Being adaptable in how we deliver quickly is going to define the next five years."
Calderon: Innovation as a behavior, not a project. "Innovation done poorly is a project. Innovation done well is a process. Innovation done best in class is a behavior. It is the muscle memory that always starts with a blank sheet of paper." He also pushed back on a common mistake in prioritization. "Make sure you are tackling the things that get you the most value first, even though they are usually the hardest."
Koehler: culture. "Leverage all the new tools and partnerships, but do not lose sight of culture and relationships. And stay focused on what problems you actually want to solve, because we are in an age of a lot of disruption and a lot of distraction. The future is bright, but only if we stay disciplined about what we are building toward."
Watch the full discussion below...